Live levels, historical comparisons, inflow tracking, and NWS forecasts for the East Texas tri-lake region. Updated hourly.
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Current Levels
Source: USGS Water Services
Cedar Creek Lake
Henderson & Kaufman Counties
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Percent Full
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Richland-Chambers
Navarro & Freestone Counties
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Percent Full
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Lake Palestine
Anderson, Cherokee, Henderson & Smith
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Percent Full
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Daily Change Rate
Rate of water level change per day (feet). Positive = rising, negative = falling. Spikes indicate storm runoff entering from tributaries. Click reservoir names in the legend to isolate. Hover for values.
Inflow Indicator — All Three Reservoirs
Daily elevation change in feet. Spikes correlate with storm runoff events.
Regional Weather Forecast
7-day NWS forecast for the East Texas tri-lake region, with callouts for significant local differences.
Estimated flood risk based on NWS forecast rainfall, current reservoir levels, recent inflow rates, and regional infrastructure capacity. Updated live from NWS quantitative precipitation forecasts.
How to read: Each reservoir scores 0–100 across four factors:
Rainfall Intensity (0–35 pts) — peak daily forecast vs. estimated drainage capacity based on pre-2010 East TX infrastructure;
7-Day Accumulation (0–25 pts) — total forecast rainfall relative to NOAA Atlas 14 return-period thresholds;
Soil Saturation (0–20 pts) — consecutive wet days and recent reservoir inflow as proxy for ground saturation (East TX clay soils have low permeability);
Reservoir Pressure (0–20 pts) — current percent-full relative to conservation pool.
Scores: 0–24 Low · 25–44 Moderate · 45–69 High · 70–100 Extreme.
This is an estimate for general awareness — always follow official NWS warnings for evacuation decisions.
Calculating flood risk...
Elevation History
Current year vs. decade averages (2000s, 2010s, 2020s). Decade lines show the average elevation for each day of the year across all years in that decade, revealing long-term trends that individual years can mask. Click any line in the legend to show or hide it.
The Conservation Pool (red line) is the normal target water level the dam operator maintains. At or near this line, the lake is full. Below it, the lake is drawn down — meaning capacity exists to absorb storm runoff. Above it, the flood pool is engaged and the dam may release water downstream, increasing flood risk for surrounding communities.
Cedar Creek Lake
Conservation pool: 322.00 ft | Daily elevation in feet above NGVD 1929
Richland-Chambers Reservoir
Conservation pool: 315.00 ft | Daily elevation in feet above NGVD 1929
Lake Palestine
Conservation pool: 345.00 ft | Daily elevation in feet above NGVD 1929
Rainfall Trend Summary
~2x
Increase in extreme rainfall frequency in NE Texas since 2013 (NWS Athens/Fort Worth gauge data)
5–15%
Projected increase in extreme 1-day precipitation by mid-century (NCA5, SSP2-4.5 scenario)
4x
More frequent: NOAA Atlas 14 shows historical 100-yr storm depths now recur at ~25-yr intervals (NOAA Atlas 14 Vol. 11, 2018)
~4%
More atmospheric moisture per 1°F temperature rise (Clausius-Clapeyron relation; ~7%/°C)
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